A61 - Crises et processus de reconfiguration régionale en Méditerranée occidentale

Over the past decade, both shores of the Western Mediterranean have been confronted with a convergence of crises of varying intensity (financial crises, anti-authoritarian protests, health crises, etc.) that have impacted public policies, systems of representation, and regional and transnational relations. The collapse of the state in Libya and the deteriorating situation in Mali have reinforced the security interdependence between the Maghreb region and the Sahel. 

This workshop aims to advance thinking on the impact of this superposition of crises in the international relations of the Maghreb, by analyzing the following aspects: the relationship between borders and identities, rivalry for regional hegemony and conflicts, the influence of regional and global powers, and the processes of international socialization of new political actors with governmental responsibilities, such as Islamist movements.

Responsable : Miguel Hernando de Larramendi, GRESAM, Université de Castilla-La Mancha, Espagne

Discutante : Irene Fernández-Molina, Université d'Exeter, Royaume-Uni et Université de Castilla-La Mancha, Espagne

Following the commencement of the anti-authoritarian protests in Tunisia in 2010, the Maghreb region increasingly began to be seen in more strategic terms by regional and international actors. During the last decade, new international players with their own agendas (China, Russia, Turkey, the Gulf states) have consolidated their presence in the region, challenging the traditional influence of the European Union. This process has been accompanied by the growing interference of extra-regional rivalries (Turkey/Qatar vs. Saudi Arabia/United Arab Emirates). At the same time, unrest in Libya and Mali has increased, while the frozen conflict in Western Sahara that has placed a severe strain on inter-Maghreb relations since 1976 was revived in late 2020.

The process of reconfiguring the Maghreb geopolitical space has also been driven by a strengthening of relations with sub-Saharan Africa, which is increasingly perceived by the Maghreb states as an area of opportunities, and not only a source of vulnerabilities.

This presentation analyses these dynamics of regional recomposition and the redefinition of regional balances of power, paying special attention to the processes behind the reconfiguration of the Algerian-Moroccan rivalry.

The wave of anti-authoritarian protests that swept across North Africa and spread to almost every Arab country in 2011 surprised the foreign ministries of the European Union states, including Spain, all of which were in the midst of a deep financial crisis. The immediate impact and reach of these protests, which brought about the fall of the leaders of countries like Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, was disconcerting to most of the European governments, which viewed the supposed stability of those regimes as playing a key role in guaranteeing their own security interests (the struggle against terrorism, irregular immigration, etc.). That preference for stability explains the prudent position taken by most European countries in the face of demands for change in the region.

Spain was no exception. In a context of domestic financial and economic crisis, which deepened in 2011, limiting the country’s international response capabilities, Spain opted for a policy of caution adapted to each case and for a new ‘economic diplomacy’ that continues today and prioritizes opening markets and identifying business opportunities abroad.

This paper examines Spanish foreign policy towards some of the movements that demanded social justice, economic development and democracy, while challenging the paradigm of ‘authoritarian stability’ that had prevailed in the region over the previous decades. It analyses the responses of successive Spanish governments that, generally speaking, did not vary substantially, although they did adapt according to the evolution of the events in each country, from the perception of security risks and an agenda of bilateral interests in a very fluid region.

The ties between the countries of southern Europe and the Maghreb are both historical and multidimensional. Beginning in the 2000s, the omnipresence of questions related to security relegated the democratic agenda, the protection of human rights and the role of civil society to the sidelines. The anti-authoritarian protests of the ‘Arab Spring’ and the resulting political transformations did not modify the positions of the governments in southern Europe, which quickly expressed their preference for stability and the authoritarian models of governance, while at the same time serving up the same old economic recipes, despite their proven negative effects in terms of social inclusion and development.

The transformations in the Maghreb countries have been characterized by their two-fold dynamics: domestic and foreign. With the lone exception of Tunisia, the regimes destabilized by the anti-authoritarian uprisings managed to hold on, fragile democracies with some clear authoritarian setbacks. Meanwhile, in this space, which the countries of southern Europe have considered their own ‘reserved area’, other actors like Turkey, the Gulf states, China and Russia have tried to consolidate their interests, allowing these fragile governments to diversify their relations.

This presentation explores the following questions: what are the consequences of these dynamics of change for the network of relations between the countries of the southern Mediterranean and the countries of North Africa? And: to what extent is the growing prominence of other regional and international actors in this region accelerating the loss of influence of the southern Mediterranean countries in a region that is pivotal to the preservation of their interests?

Like other political actors, Islamists exist in a particular regional context to which they adapt and/or resist and from which they learn different lessons. This presentation explores the interaction between the international/regional space and the domestic space, focusing on how Islamist political parties incorporate international factors into their domestic strategies. Specifically, it analyses how the international context, regional examples and counterexamples and the foreign policy of third parties have impacted the development and evolution of the Islamist parties in the Maghreb. The paper argues that three main phases have elevated the circulation of three major examples and counterexamples: a) the emergence of the Algerian Islamic Salvation Front as a counterexample during the 1990s; b) the peak of the ‘Turkish model’ during the 2000s; and c) the recent emphasis on the propositions of the Moroccan Justice and Development Party. Each of these periods coincides with an international moment that emphasizes different characteristics: a) the need to reject the resort to violence by Islamists; b) institutional (re-)construction without confrontation with the West; and c) a separation between the political arena and social mobilization/proselytism. At the same time, Islamist actors have drawn on these examples and counterexamples to assert their positions at home.